DOING AFFINITY ANALYSIS

While analyzing quantitative data is relatively easy, qualitative data analysis can take a toll on the researcher. There are high chances that the researcher misses out on important information while trying to get the right data. One of the techniques to analyze quantitative data is doing an affinity analysis. It is a data analysis and data mining technique that discovers co-occurrence relationships among different variables and responses.

The affinity diagram is a great method for quickly organizing data. The tool is also known as an affinity chart, thematic analysis or the K-J method, after Japanese anthropologist Kawakita Jiro, who created the technique.

To create an affinity diagram, you’ll need index cards or sticky notes, some physical space and a group of people. From there, you can:

1.Transfer data to the index cards or sticky notes.
2.Scatter the cards on a table or post the notes on a wall or board.
3.Divide the group of people into smaller groups of two or three.
4.Have one group arrange the cards silently.
5.Rotate the group of participants after two or three minutes. Continue this until the cards or notes are organized into groups of related ideas, issues or topics.
6.Develop titles for each group of cards. If logical, put related groups into larger super-groups.
7.When you’re done, you’ll have something like the affinity diagram in Figure 1.

Procedure for Affinity Diagram
The figure 2 shows the 7-step process which is normally used to develop an affinity diagram:

STAGES 1, 2, 3 and 4 (Idea Generation)
As mentioned above, the idea of affinity analysis is to gather and combine large amounts of verbal information in order to find solutions to a specific problem. Hence, the first two stages of the process will be to define the problem and to generate ideas. While defining the problem, it is very important to reach a consensus on the words that you are going to use. There must be absolutely no doubt about the issue under discussion because if this is the case, it may later on be a very difficult to use the results. The generation of ideas follows the traditional guidelines of brainstorming, structured, or unstructured, with no criticism of ideas, whatsoever.

Each idea is written down on a small card or a Post-it note and placed randomly on the center of the table where everybody can see it.

STAGES 5, 6, and 7 (Idea Grouping and Presentation)

After generation of the ideas, the grouping session starts. The idea is to arrange, the grouping session starts. The idea is to arrange the cards in related groupings. The groupings are done by the entire team and it takes place in silence. In practice, team members start the group by picking out cards that they think are closely related and then placing these at one side of the table or wall, wherever the session takes place. Eventually, groups of cards appear and the grouping session takes place. Eventually, groups of cards appear and the grouping process continues until all members are satisfied with the grouping. If a member is not satisfied, he simply moves a card from an existing group to another which he finds more appropriate. Sometimes, a card keeps moving from one group to another. In such a case, it is good idea to break the silence and dismiss the actual meaning of the working on the card. When a card keeps moving, the usual reason is that the wording on the card is unclear or equivocal.

After the grouping has come to an end, it is time to break the silence. Now the teams discuss the groups and they decide upon headings for the groups. Finally, an affinity diagram showing the entire grouping is drawn.
In our opinion, this technique is very efficient in connection with problem-solving. It may seem very simple and unsophisticated but experience shows that it may be of great help at all levels of management. Furthermore, it is a very fast method due to the silence. Time is not spent in argument, instead you go directly to the point and solve the problem.

As an example, we report the result of a study made by a larger supplier of food. He was interested in getting an idea of what the ordinary female consumer thought characterized the daily meal. He started the study by setting up two focus groups each consisting of eight persons. The first group consisted of females below 35 and the later of females above 35. Within the groups, the members were distributed according to occupation, education, and the family situations.

One of the exercises he groups did was to use the affinity technique (after proper introduction to the technique) to define and group elements they thought characterized the daily meal. They followed the procedure given above and one of the results was the affinity diagram given in figure 3.

The two groups came up with almost identical groupings which in itself is very interesting. The grouping given here is for the 35+ team and the only difference between this one and the one given by the other team was that for the younger females, the fatty content was moved from the healthy group to the quality group. For this team less fat meant higher quality. We should believe that if the affinity technique had not been used, we would never have discovered the difference—a difference which is actually very important that you communicate to your customers.

•Write only one issue or topic on each card or sticky note.
•Do not put the cards or notes into any type of order when setting them out.
•Transfer the data verbatim. If possible, don’t change wording.
•Don’t talk when arranging the cards into groups. While this might be the hardest thing to do for some, the silence keeps people from influencing others.
•Stop the exercise when there are only a few cards left without a group. Duplicate those cards and put them into multiple groups.
•Brainstorm to develop group headings. Post the heading labels. If some groups logically present a common theme, put them together and create a super group label.
•Take time to discuss the resulting diagram. Review any surprises or disagreements that might be the foundation for an action plan.
•Through this exercise, not only have you easily grouped the data, you also have gained the following benefits:
•Speed: Imagine a group discussing how to compile hundreds of bits of data. The affinity exercise forces the team members to use instinctive reactions rather than lengthy discussions.
•Acceptance: Reading, thinking and moving the data builds buy-in from the team. They become more familiar with issues and relationships.
•New thinking: Because of the spatial movement, this exercise forces people to use the creative right side of the brain in addition to the analytical left side of the brain. This combination can open people’s eyes to new ways of seeing issues.

(Source: Fundamentals of Total Quality Management, By Jens J. Dahlgaard, Kai Kristensen, and Ghopal K. Khanji, and other internet sources)

CA Members and their Suggestion Collection spree

Since i am involved in research activities, I could not stop myself from writing about the suggestion collection process of our esteemed CA members. I know it is a noble idea to get people involved in the process of drafting a new constitution for the country. However, after what i got to hear yesterday from an acquaintance, i no more think the idea to be a great one.

The person who told me the details is working in an international organization promoting democracy in Nepal, and they have been closely working with the CA members in the entire process.She told me that concept paper for the constitution was to be ready by March 28, 2009 (which was yesterday), but the suggestions from all the VDCs have not yet been collected. The target was to collect suggestions from people from all the VDCs across Nepal. The process started in the first week of February, and as per calculation, each of the CA member had to collect suggestions from 4-5 VDCs per day. The questionnaire had 250 questions. Oh boy!250 questions is something....and the best part about the questionnaire was that they were not objective questions but subjective questions...so, how are the CA members going to code the questions and analyze the answers? From a research perspective, this is completely absurd and mere stupidity..

I was also told the amount that the CA members demanded for the entire process. They first started with 2 million Euro...but all of a sudden, their calculations hit a whopping 72 million Euro..But since this was a loooooot of money, the amount was settled somewhere near 20 million Euro, which still is a lot of money.

Our CA members for sure cannot analyze the data (they perhaps have better things to do like Constitution building), so they are thinking of asking Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) to help them do the analysis...I don't doubt CBS's expertise, but what can one do if the questionnaire is Incomprehensible to a data coding expert?

I am not a research expert, but a neophyte like me knows that this study is nothing but a serious waste of time and money.I wish our CA Members were more objective, and thought of concentrating their efforts in something better. The CA Members say that the suggestion collection process is seeing a lot of enthusiasm from people, but i doubt its relevance...Only after the research results are published that i can actually say "Good job Honorable members!"

Financial Crisis Presents Opportunity for Asia

By Michael Barker

The Global economic crisis should be viewed by Asia’s policymakers as an opportunity to expand investment in “desperately” needed public goods, economist Jeffrey Sachs told an ADB audience.

Professor Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and a special advisor to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, was speaking at ADB Headquarters today as part of the Distinguished Speakers Program.

In a lecture titled "Achieving Global Cooperation on Economic Recovery and Long-Term Sustainable Development", Prof. Sachs said that with the drop in external demand for Asian exports, the region will “have to rely on public spending,” such as infrastructure, health, education and energy reforms.

“Asia needs all of that desperately,” Prof. Sachs said. “This is still the region of the world with the fastest urbanization, with the most dramatic need for pollution control, for cleaning up the energy sector, for cleaning up the rivers, for sustainable urban development, for accommodating the migration of hundreds of millions of people from rural areas to urban areas. I like to view this crisis as an opportunity for Asia given the chronic underinvestment in public goods. Public spending has a very high social return and also has a very high macroeconomic purpose right now."

He said that with around $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, large current account surpluses and low inflation, Asia is well placed to expand public spending.

“Asia can continue to have robust growth even as the exports decline,” Prof. Sachs said. “[but] it's going to have to be an Asian-led effort within Asia.”

The substantial reserves of Asia's two largest economies - Japan and China - would be key to a quick recovery.

He advocated that Japan, with $1 trillion in reserves, adopt a more expansionary stance on monetary policy, and making long term yen credit lines more readily available in the region — particularly in South Korea and ASEAN —to help boost growth. Meanwhile, China’s “main role should be to keep the Chinese economy growing and keep buying from the rest of the region.”

He described the ADB's role as helping economies in the region with long-term financing.

With the region's macroeconomic strengths, the crisis should be viewed as an opportunity to rebalance public and private sectors, and short-term macroeconomic with long-term investment interests, he said.

Source: http://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2009/12767-asian-financial-crisis

Writing an abstract

An abstract is a brief, comprehensive summary of contents of the article: it allows readers to survey the contents of an article quickly, and like a title, it enables abstracting and information services to index and retrieve articles.

A well-prepared abstract can be the most important paragraph in your article. “Once printed in the journal, your abstract is just beginning an active and frequently very long life as part of collection of abstracts” in printed and electronic forms (APA, 1984). Most people will have their first contact with an article by seeing just the abstract, usually on a computer screen with several other abstracts, as they are doing a literature search through an electronic abstract-retrieval system. Readers frequently decide on the basis of the abstract whether to read the entire article: this is true whether the reader is at a computer or is thumbing through a journal. The abstract needs to be dense with information but also readable, well organized, brief, and self contained. Also, embedding many key words in your abstract will enhance the user’s ability to find it. A good abstract is:

Accurate: ensure that the abstract correctly reflects the purpose and content of the manuscript. Do not include information that does not appear in the body of the paper.

Self-contained: Define all abbreviations (except unit of measurement) and acronyms. Define unique terms. Paraphrase rather than quote. Include name(s) of author(s) (initials and surnames) and dates of publications in citations of other publications (and give a full bibliographic citation in the article’s reference list)

Concise and specific: Make each sentence maximally informative, especially the lead sentence. Be as brief as possible. Abstracts should not exceed 120 words. Begin the abstract with the most important information and include in the abstract only the four or five most important concepts, findings, and implications.

Non-evaluative: Report rather than evaluate: do not add to or comment on what is in the body of the manuscript.

Coherent and readable: Write in clear and vigorous prose. Use verbs rather than their noun equivalents and the active rather than the passive voice. Use the present tense to describe results with continuing applicability or conclusions drawn. Use the third person rather than the first person.

An abstract of a report of an empirical study should describe:
•The person user investigation, in one sentence if possible
•The participants or subjects, specifying pertinent characteristics, such as number, type, age, sex, and genus and species.
•The experimental method, including the apparatus, data-gathering procedures, complete test names, and complete generic names.
•The findings, including statistical significance levels, and
•The conclusions and the implications or applications

An abstract for a review or theoretical article should describe:
•The topic, in one sentence
•The purpose, thesis, or organizing construct and the scope of the article
•The sources used (e.g. personal observation, published literature), and
•The conclusions

An abstract for a methodical paper should describe:
•The general class of method being proposed or discussed
•The essential features of the proposed method
•The range of application of the proposed method, and
•The behavior of the method, including its power and robustness to violation of assumptions

An abstract of a case study should describe
•The subject and relevant characteristics of the individual or organization
•The nature of or solution to a problem illustrated by the case example, and
•The questions raised for additional research or theory

An abstract that is accurate, succinct, quickly comprehensible, and informative will increase the audience and the further retrievability of your article. You may submit only one version of the abstract. I is exceeds 120-word limit, the abstractors in some secondary services may truncate your abstract to fit their databases, and this could impair retrievability.

Source: Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, Fifth Edition

Global Financial Fall-out: Assessing Impact on Nepalese economy

1. The current financial crisis is “Once-in-a-lifetime crisis”. It will be remembered as first global financial crisis of 21st century. This crisis is the mixture of financial, currency (exchange rate), business, and finally a family crisis.

2. The first global economic crisis in modern capitalism broke out in 1857 and in the midst of suspicion that capitalism would no longer recover; this crisis was overcome by 1858, in less than a year.

3. In USA it is subprime loan and in UK, fall in output has been blamed on the credit crunch. There has been a dramatic decline in the US house prices for the first time since the 1930s. Big lenders are dangerously exposed to the high risk loans market.

4. The reason, mortgage-backed securities became the priority business in the United States in the past was because of very simple reason:

a. Consider the information given by the US Census Bureau. A person who bought a new home in January 1996 for $155,000 could reasonably expect to make a profit of $100,000 when selling in August 2006. Unfortunately, this prospect is now bleak because of credit crunch.

b. A safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer’s yearly income, but mortgages have been 5 to 10 times incomes in the last few years, which have eliminated the current prospect of housing market.

5. As mortgage-backed assets have lost their value, it is anticipated that banks and financial institutions in the world are likely to lose $2.8 trillion from the credit crunch. The crisis is now spreading to emerging markets-Russia, South Korea and Brazil indicating the possibility of “second epicenter” of the global crisis.

6. The level of contraction of the economy realized after many decades indicates that inevitability of the continuation of recession. If contagion spreads, today’s capital adequacy will be meaningless tomorrow.

7. There were some common trends globally, some of which can even be seen in nepal’s case. For example, in many countries, foreign investors withdrew portfolio investment. This made impact in domestic and foreign capital market. The countries realized the reduction in foreign exchange reserve. There was a liquidity crunch in the domestic market, which created problem in accessing credit. This situation badly affected share market and real estate. This was the initial problem of financial crisis.

8. Usually a recession lasts from six to eighteen months only if the fiscal and monetary stimulus plan is put in place to offer cheap rates to borrow money. It will continue otherwise.

9. Coming to India, as crisis is likely to stay longer, the impact on India will also be stronger than expected. India already has experienced a knock-on effect. As Nepali rupee is pegged with India and 64% of the total trade deficit remains with India, Nepal will also have an indirect impact. The indicator of the impact both in India and Nepal is the sharp fluctuation in the capital market and devaluation of rupees.

10. With the fall in the interest rate in india, there was a moderation in growth. Nepal is in a unique situation in the sense that inflation rate is increasing and growth declining. CBS reports, the manufacturing production index declined by 1.4 percent in 2007/08 compared to a growth of 2.6 percent in the previous year. The challenge Nepal faces is to balance between inflation and growth.

11. a) China may pose additional threat in the global economy since more than 40 percent of industries in China are loss making units, as a result of which the banking sector has been accumulating Non-Performing assets. The financial infrastructure keeps crumbling and new globalization pride is frighteningly unstable.

b) Although China has a foreign exchange reserve of $2 trillion, it cannot be protected because of the dramatic fall in global demand. Since 1990s, household consumption as a share of China’s GDP has fallen from approximately half of 25 percent.

12. As world’s most powerful financial markets are in turmoil and symptoms for the crack down of emerging economies have been noticed, many believe, there is a greater possibility of global recession. IMF’s special fund worth US $ 260 plus additional $100 billion could have been enough to rescue smaller nations, but if contagion spreads, existing resources will be inadequate.

13. The government in Argentina has nationalized country’s 10 private pension funds. In Brazil, the government-owned institutions are asked to purchase shares in private financial institutions. The Canadian government has earmarked US$ 21 billion asset-swaps. In Mexico US$3.92 billion is offered in loan guarantees for debit refinancing. Australia cut interest rate by one percent. Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand. Singapore, South Korea, etc have immediate stimulus plan. It indicates at whatever degree, the globalization will not leave a single country unaffected.

14. Nepal has a comfortable level of foreign currency. From a level of Rs 165.1 billion in mid-July 2007, the foreign exchange reserve has increased by 28.8 percent by reaching the level of Rs 212.6 billion in mid-July 2008. The decline in the aggregate demand in the real sector and weakening consumer spending is a sign to justify the vulnerability of such reserve. To cushion the impact of the economic meltdown, the government should initiate contingency plan.

15. There are causes in India to withdraw foreign reserves by foreign investors from the capital market. However, a ray of hope is the current revival of rising share value in New York Stock Exchange and its impact in Japan and other Asian countries. The Reserve Bank of India’s standard regulation and meticulous supervision has been successful to maintain capital adequacy requirements by limiting the financial institutions to exceed given limits of exposure to stock markets. The role of Nepal Rastra Bank should therefore be more significant for timely and implementable regulations.

16. In Nepal, there is an impressive development of banking sector. Interest rate spread is comparable with the regional neighbors. Banks are holding more funds than they are required to. The foreign exchange reserve at present is Rs 177 billion and the cash reserve of the commercial banks with the Nepal Rastra bank is Rs. 31 billion.

17. Nepal does not have direct link with the troubled financial institutions abroad. From this perspective we do not see immediate threat in Nepal’s financial regime. The greater the integration, the higher is the possibility of being victimized by speculative factors.

18. In terms of merchandise trade, about 80 percent of Nepal’s readymade garments find their share in the USA and Germany happens to be one of the largest markets for Nepal’s carpet. This means delayed financial recovery in these countries can have a negative impact on Nepal’s export trade.

19. The crisis will also have a significant impact in country’s tourism sector. Out of the total tourist arrivals in Nepal, USA represents 5.9 percent and Europeons counstitute 25.7 percent. Besides the decline in tourist arrival, the credit crunch in these countries will certainly have some impact on Nepal’s export trade, foreign investment in Nepal and overseas development assistance for Nepal.

20. As demand is shrinking, there is a massive decline in commodity price in global market. This means there is an easy and cost effective access to industrial raw materials, which can support manufacturing sectors and control inflation. A plan therefore, needs to be developed without any delay in accessing priority-based industries and other related construction works.

21. The depreciation of Nepali currency against US dollar should have positive impact on export, remittances and also tourism. Since manufacturing sector is contracting and export is declining, it is difficult to realize export gains from currency depreciation. But currency depreciation on the other hand, is expected to increase budget deficit by Rs. 1.9 billion as an additional burden to dept servicing.

22. No homework has been done to investigate the level of investments made by Nepali entrepreneurs in India’s capital market with their money borrowed from Nepal’s financial institutions. India’s share market index has declined by 6,000 points between October 2007 and October 2008. The victims, if there are any, could become defaulters in Nepal’s banks.

23. Rough estimate shows, on an average, out of the total loan, the percentage share of real-estate lending stands at about 10 percent. However, it is scare to note that the average loan exposure of top three banks in terms of investment in real estate stands at almost 31 percent of their total lending volume. The policy makers in Nepal should now get ready to assess loan portfolio of the commercial banks. As we know, not all the banks are able to write off the losses from bad loans, therefore, there is a need for transparency to assess how bad the crisis may become in the future.

24. The remittance has increased by 42.5 percent this year reaching approximately to Rs. 142 billion. The worker’s remittances soared by 80.7 percent in the first three month of 2008/09 compared to a growth of 17.2 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Remittances contribute 17.4 percent of the GDP.

25. Out of the total 241104 remittance earners from Nepal during the last FY 2007/08, Qatar, ranked first and Malaysia, UAE, Saudi Arabia ranked top three. Malaysia has early symptom to get contagion effect but rest are at the moment fine. Therefore, no immediate threat is seen in the remittance front. In case there is a crisis, the government should design and establish a special support fund to rescue overseas workers who might be displaced.

26. There is a threat that prospective foreign investors who would be interested to invest in Nepal by taking loans from troubled financial institutions may now back out. A special task force should be constituted to inform the investors about Nepal’s financial sector health and government’s rescue program, in case trouble arises. At the domestic front, the policy on the existing capital adequacy should be to access credit to productive sectors, exports and small and medium enterprises.

27. Finally, the world should chose between the “intrusive-regulation” and “market-led code of conduct”. To facilitate the existence and viability of new global economy, it is the common interest of every nation, rich and poor to safeguard globally integrated financial system.

(This is based on the lecture given by Dr Bishwambher Pyakuryal at Kathmandu College of management on December 7, 2008)

Writing a Manuscript

Research is complete only when the results are shared with the scientific community. Although such sharing is accomplished in various ways, both formal and informal; the traditional medium of communicating research results is the scientific journal.

The scientific journal is the repository of the accumulated knowledge of a field. In the literature are distilled the success and failures, the information, and the perspectives contributed by many investigators over many years. Familiarity with the literature allows an individual investigator to avoid needlessly repeating work that has been done before, to build on existing work, and in turn to contribute something new. A literature built of meticulously prepared, carefully reviewed contributions thus fosters the growth of a field.

Although writing for publication is sometime tedious, the rewards of publication are many for the writer, the reader, and the science. The writing process initially requires a thorough review and evaluation of previous work in the literature, which helps acquaint one with the field as a whole and establishes whether one’s idea is truly new and significant. Authors beginning the writing process will find that there is no better way to clarify and organize their ideas than by trying to explain them to someone else. Thus, the content and the organization of a scientific manuscript reflect the logical thinking in scientific investigation and the preparation of a manuscript for journal publication is an integral part of the individual research effort.

Just as each investigator benefits from the publication process, so the body of scientific literature depends on its vitality on active participation of individual investigators. Authors of individual scientific articles contribute most to the literature when they communicate clearly and concisely.

The blog will further discuss several considerations authors should weigh before writing for publication-considerations both about their own research and about the scientific publishing tradition in which they are to take part. Stay posted to get more information.

Source: Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, Fifth Edition

Obama's victory from a management perspective

By Bill Taylor

It's the morning after one of the most miraculous events in memory, so it seems slightly uninspired to look to yesterday's election for lessons about leadership, competition, and change. But what is a presidential election, ultimately, then a nationwide exercise in leadership, competition, and change?
So this morning, still bleary-eyed from a late night of watching concession speeches, victory celebrations, and nonstop punditry from all points on the political spectrum, allow me to offer a few insights about how Barack Obama ran his campaign to lead our country -- and what it means for how we should think about how we run our companies and lead our organizations.

The first lesson is that being different makes all the difference. It's remarkable, really, how similar so many of our first 43 presidents have been to one another. It's not just that they've all been white males, but that so many of them have been cut from the same personal and political cloth. Lawyers. Military service. Many years (if not decades) entrenched in the political scene.

Get the full article: How Obama Became CEO of the USA -- and What It Means for CEOs Everywhere